Monterey, California 7 Day Weather Forecast Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Aviation |
Forecast from NOAA-NWSfor Monterey CA. |
Weather Forecast Discussion |
366FXUS66 KMTR 131148AFDMTRArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service San Francisco CA448 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024...New AVIATION, MARINE....SYNOPSIS...Issued at 204 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024A Heat Advisory remains in effect for elevated inland locations,and will expire later this evening. A welcomed cooling trend willbegin tomorrow and extend through at least the middle of theupcoming work week.&&.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)Issued at 204 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024An upper level low currently centered 200mi offshore ofsouth/central California will gradually lift north over the courseof the weekend while making little gain eastward toward land withthe persistent high over the Four Corners region driving thesynoptic pattern across western CONUS. There is little to no thermalinstability associated with weak shortwave energy and PVA shiftingsouth to north across our area today and tomorrow. Probability ofelevated convection is too low for mentioning in the forecast butcan`t rule it out entirely. If an isolated thunderstorm develops,dry lightning from any high based convection could spark a wild fireas grass fuels continue to dry. Surface based convection well inlandand east of our area is expected, where continental modifiedboundary layer moisture is more robust with stronger diurnal surfaceheating at higher altitudes. A Heat Advisory remains in effectthrough this evening for much of our elevated interior locations,marking the end of an historic heat wave. A strengthening marinelayer through the weekend into the beginning of next week will helpthe cooling trend as the offshore disturbance slowly migrates north.&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)Issued at 204 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024By early Monday, the upper level low begins to get absorbed bypersistent NorCal offshore troughing resulting from theamplification of the Four Corners ridge back to the northwest acrossNevada, Oregon and Washington state. The steady fetch of cooleronshore flow will help keep temperatures around normal through atleast the middle of next week. Warmer temperatures are expected latenext week into the weekend as the ridge migrates westward next week,steering the jet stream and cooler temperatures aloft well to ournorth.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 441 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024IFR and LIFR CIGS a have already filled over the Monterey Bay andthe North Bay terminals. OAK looks to have moments of IFR CIGsinto the mid morning. Expect light to moderate winds through thelate morning. Patches of fog look to affect the Monterey Bayterminals through the mid morning. CIGs erode into mid Saturdaymorning for most areas, but CIGs around the Monterey Bay lingerinto the early afternoon. Moderate to breezy winds build Saturdayafternoon. Winds ease into Saturday evening as CIGs return to thecoast, portions of the SF Bay, and Monterey Bay terminals.Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay moderatethrough Saturday night, turning from northwesterly to west-southwesterly in the afternoon before becoming light and variableSaturday night.SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs and mist last into the midmorning for SNS but into the afternoon for MRY. Expect pockets offog to form in the area through much of the morning. As CIGsdissipate, moderate westerly winds build into the area. These windsreduce into the night, as IFR CIGs move inland.&&.MARINE...(Today through Thursday)Issued at 441 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024Winds across the waters reduce into the morning. Seas becomecalmer as winds begin to ease. Light winds last through themajority of next week. Significant wave heights between 10 to 12ft continue over the outer coastal waters with peak wave heightsbetween 10 to 13 ft expected over the far northern outer coastalwaters.&&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 204 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024A low probability of elevated convection producing drythunderstorm lightning strikes continues, but there is no mentionof thunderstorms in the official forecast attm. Steep midlevellapse rates and improving midlevel moisture today and tomorrowwill have difficulty organizing any thunderstorm activity over ourarea. Our fuels continue to dry while approaching record levels,so if isolated thunderstorms develop, they will have to bewatched carefully.&&.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-510-513>515- 517-518.PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.&&$$SHORT TERM...JMLONG TERM....JMAVIATION...MurdockMARINE...MurdockVisit us at www.weather.gov/sanfranciscoFollow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:www.facebook.com/nwsbayareawww.twitter.com/nwsbayareawww.youtube.com/nwsbayarea View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location |
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook |
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
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